By Francesco Francioni

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Rosenberg, L. Summers and I. Bremmer 2012. : The Munk Debate on the Economy, Toronto: House of Anansi Press. Laeven, L. and F. Valencia 2008. Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database, IMF Working Paper No. 08/224. Motonishi, T. and H. Yoshikawa 1999. Causes of the Long Stagnation of Japan During the 1990s: Financial or Real? NBER Working Papers No. 7351. M. ) 1990. Economic Crisis and Policy Choice: The Politics of Adjustment in the Third World, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Rodriguez, F.

This was in line with nominal GDP growth in excess of 7 per cent. However, in the course of the following decade, nominal GDP growth collapsed, and so did interest rates. The Bank of Japan responded by lowering the official discount rate (ODR), and later the call rate, over a dozen times. 0 Gov. 1 92 93 94 95 96 97 Interest rates in Japan in the 1990s Source: Bank of Japan, Profit Research Center Ltd, Tokyo. 98 99 00 A Third Decade of Low Growth? 23 a suitable policy response that, contemporaries expected each time, would result in a stimulation of economic activity and an end to the recession.

It is too much of a coincidence that all these cases emerged over the past few decades. It would not be convincing to classify them all as accidents. Maybe a larger mechanism has been at work and some long-term structural trends may have been present. Dejuan (Chapter 4) points to one of these longer-term aspects. He analyzes what would have happened after the great recession of 2007–2008 if the current regime of financial institutions had remained intact. Arguing from a post-Keynesian and Schumpeterian standpoint, he notes that the history of capitalism is marked by long waves of prosperity led by industries with huge potential markets and strong dragging effects.

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